Did I to write this down (april 2011 on my blog) for the sake of historic trace ?
Anyway, I see so many old ideas now being put in books on "the future" that I figured I should write down my own predictions ...
Getting a bit tired of some of these future gurus talking about what really happened 10 years ago...
Computer-driven cars that can form convoys on motorways, guided by GPS, ABS etc. : that is really old stuff. Shouldn't say that, because it makes me non-young ...
Early 80s this was already done and published in Electronica (magazine), project Vera (if I remember right). The issues will always be there :
* all equipment must be changed in 1 go and must be standardised : this is both expensive and not profitable. If everything is the same, there is no differentiation and hence no value, so no margin.
If you don't do it all in 1 go, it's very risky. So we need a "compelling event" or a "burning platform" to make the change happen. I think a 10 days traffic jam will be needed, with people dying in their cars from hunger. Or, more realistically, a major company going bankrupt because their goods/services don't get delivered anymore.
My view : Instead of these old-style vehicles we have now (and I do like my car !), I think we will have some kind of "box" that will be put on a common carrier (like a train these days) and that will be transported to the destination. No need for steering wheels, engines etc. Your own personalised space on an optimised public transport-system.
To make sure people can still show their status, I see us being able to buy or rent different boxes : ranging from a very small one with plastic seats to a comfortable one with special audio/video and comfy seats. You will be able to pay for more space and for privacy (tinted tripled "walls"), so that you can still impress your neighbors with highly transportation unit.
This "STATUS" is critical ! Take a train to Brussels that arrives around 8h and you look around you. You notice the social classification system of 2nd class and 1st class (mostly civil servants with a seniority status). It's not the comfort of the seats, but the "social class" of people you share the train with.
To go somewhere in the future system, you indicate to the transportation system where you want to go and when you want to be there... like modern microwaves handle grilled chicken. Your box will join the common systems, but you will travel in your "own space" (if you can afford it).
No fun in driving, but you didn't move anymore anyway. Electricity produced by some kind of clever process, so no worries. And you can play cards or sleep on the way to your destination. A bit like a train, but door-to-door, private and your own style of comfort.
Audio / Video and probably IT
IT and especially IT - Business Alignment
Does INNOVATION really matter ?
Is it still worthwhile to study engineering (IT or electronics) ?
But only for those who are capable of dreaming and saying "can do" !
Engineering is not about doing another refinement of existing stuff. It is about changing things fundamentally. About never being satisfied, about always questioning ...
But it's also about daring to ask the question : what does this improve for others ?
Do I still believe in Technology and Innovation ?
I am worried about the hyping and the spinning of information.
But I fundamentally believe that new dreams (ideas) that are coveted correctly, with a respect for the idea combined with a realism for the economics, WILL change the world for the better.
As for structuring : Mr. Fleming (who did discover one of THE major medication) should have been fired on the spot, because he did not even clean up before leaving ....
But we would not have the medication today without a rigourous process to turn his "discovery" into a reliable drug today.
It is about "stimulate the dream, structure the realisation"